Are you wondering about the future trajectory of Bitcoin, especially with eyes set on October 2025? The digital asset landscape often feels like navigating a dense fog, but by focusing on key indicators, a clearer path can be illuminated. The insights from PlanB, shared in the accompanying video, offer a data-driven perspective on Bitcoin’s current market health and potential movements.
This article delves deeper into the technical and macroeconomic factors shaping Bitcoin’s journey, expanding on the analyses presented by PlanB. We will explore how established barriers are transforming, the underlying financial forces at play, and what various on-chain and technical indicators are signaling for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Understanding these complex signals can provide a more informed outlook for investors and enthusiasts alike.
Bitcoin’s Ascent: The $100,000 Barrier Transformed
Bitcoin’s performance in recent months has been particularly noteworthy, establishing a strong foundation for future growth. September closed with Bitcoin at $114,000, marking its second-highest monthly close ever recorded. Furthermore, this achievement represents the fifth consecutive month that Bitcoin has maintained a position above the significant $100,000 threshold. This sustained performance indicates a crucial shift in market dynamics.
1. The $100,000 price point, once a formidable psychological resistance level, now appears to have solidified into robust support. Despite some skepticism, with two out of three market participants reportedly believing a drop below $100,000 is still possible, the current rally shows resilience. This momentum is not simply based on “paper Bitcoin” but reflects a genuine market expansion, mirroring growth across other major asset classes. The shift from resistance to support is akin to a river carving a new, deeper channel, where previous obstacles now guide the flow.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Money Printing Fuels Asset Growth
The simultaneous rallying of diverse asset classes—including gold, stocks, real estate, and Bitcoin—points to a shared underlying driver. This widespread appreciation can be largely attributed to ongoing global money printing and the resulting debasement of fiat currencies. The continuous increase in money supply diminishes the purchasing power of traditional currencies, making scarce assets increasingly attractive.
2. Bitcoin was fundamentally created as a direct hedge against precisely this phenomenon of currency debasement. As governments continue to expand their monetary bases, assets like Bitcoin inherently become more valuable due to their finite supply. While other assets also benefit from this inflationary environment, Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to appreciate at an accelerated pace. This dynamic acts like a powerful economic current, propelling digital assets forward with considerable force.
Decoding Market Sentiment with the Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a vital momentum oscillator, providing insights into whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Currently, Bitcoin’s RSI stands at 69, a level that confirms a solid uptrend without yet indicating an overbought condition. An RSI above 80, often visualized as “red dots” on historical charts, typically signals a period of intense greed and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
3. Historically, every major Bitcoin bull market, including those in 2013, 2017, and 2021, has featured multiple instances of these “red dots” as prices surged. The current absence of such extreme overbought signals suggests that the market has significant room for further upward movement before reaching peak euphoria. This situation is much like a train gathering speed; it has covered a good distance, but the highest velocity is still ahead. The expectation is that “red dots” will eventually appear, likely in the coming quarters, signaling a period of heightened market activity. Without witnessing these signs of extreme greed, concerns about an imminent crash, often referred to as “blue” periods of fear, remain largely unfounded.
The 200-Week Moving Average and Realized Price Crossover
Key on-chain indicators like the 200-week Moving Average (200WMA) and Realized Price offer profound insights into Bitcoin’s market cycles. The 200WMA, currently around $53,000, represents a long-term average of Bitcoin’s price, often acting as a significant support level. The Realized Price, currently about $54,000, reflects the average price at which all Bitcoins were last moved on-chain, often functioning as a robust bear market floor.
4. A particularly compelling signal for a maturing bull market is when the Realized Price jumps above the 200WMA. This rare crossover event has historically followed deep bear markets, indicating a fundamental shift in market structure. The most recent instance saw the Realized Price once again surge above the 200WMA, echoing similar patterns observed in the bull markets of 2013, 2017, and 2021. This divergence is a powerful sign of recovery, especially after the challenging 2022 bear market, which was notably severe due to events like the FTX collapse. It’s like a spring coiling tightly after being compressed, now ready to uncoil with considerable force as momentum builds and the lines diverge further.
Stock-to-Flow Model: A Scarcity Magnet
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, a widely discussed framework, posits a relationship between Bitcoin’s scarcity and its market value. By comparing the existing supply (“stock”) to the rate of new production (“flow”), the model attempts to forecast Bitcoin’s long-term price potential. The current S2F target for this cycle is approximately $500,000, within a broad target range of $250,000 to $1 million.
5. The core premise of S2F is that Bitcoin’s inherent scarcity, enforced by its programmed halving events, acts as a powerful “scarcity magnet,” continuously pulling its value upward. In an environment of increasing fiat money supply, this scarcity becomes even more pronounced, amplifying Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value. While S2F provides a rough target and should not be taken as a precise prediction, it offers a conceptual framework for understanding Bitcoin’s potential. It illustrates how Bitcoin, much like a precious metal, gains value not just from demand, but from its verifiable and unalterable limited supply.
Geometric vs. Arithmetic Moving Averages: Signaling Momentum
Beyond the standard 200-week arithmetic moving average, the geometric moving average provides another lens for assessing market momentum. The arithmetic mean simply averages closing prices over a period (e.g., four years, currently around $53,000), while the geometric mean (currently about $45,000) calculates a constant interest rate or return needed to get from a starting point to an endpoint over that same period. The geometric mean is always lower than the arithmetic mean due to volatility.
6. The divergence between these two moving averages is a critical indicator of building volatility and momentum within the market. As these lines begin to spread apart, it often signals the onset or continuation of a strong bull market. This increasing spread indicates that the “internal rate of return” is gaining pace relative to a simple average. This widening gap confirms that market forces are gathering strength, much like a massive freight train picking up speed; once it’s moving, it’s difficult to stop instantly and will continue its trajectory for a considerable time, fueled by its inherent momentum.
Realized Price Metrics: No Bear Warning Signs
Further granular insights into market health are provided by different realized price metrics. The 2-year realized price, currently around $92,000, filters out early, potentially lost coins and focuses on coins bought within the last two years. The 5-month realized price, or short-term supply realized price, stands at approximately $111,000 and focuses on even more recent buyer activity.
7. All realized prices—from the long-term 200WMA and standard realized price to the 2-year and 5-month metrics—are currently on an upward trend, often depicted as a consistent 45-degree angle. This steady climb, with Bitcoin’s spot price remaining above all these realized prices, is a classic characteristic of a robust bull market. Importantly, there are no immediate bear warning signs, which would typically manifest if the short-term supply realized price (yellow line on PlanB’s chart) fell below the 2-year realized price (blue line). Such an event usually signals a deepening bear market, but its current absence reinforces the prevailing bullish sentiment. The coordinated rise of these various realized price floors paints a picture of a steadily strengthening market, like a rising tide lifting all boats.
