The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has long been associated with a predictable four-year cycle, often linked to its halving events. This established rhythm has guided many investors, shaping expectations for bull runs and subsequent corrections. However, as global economic dynamics evolve, leading analysts like Raoul Pal are challenging this traditional view, suggesting that fundamental shifts in the global financial landscape are actually lengthening the Bitcoin cycle.
The recent market movements, with Bitcoin continuing to trade within a specific range, might seem familiar to long-term observers. Price dips, as highlighted in the accompanying video featuring Raoul Pal, are often viewed as strategic buying opportunities at support levels. Yet, a deeper dive into the macroeconomic undercurrents reveals why the anticipated “off to the races” moment for Bitcoin might be postponed, pushing the next major peak into 2026, potentially in Q2.
Understanding the Shift in Bitcoin Cycles: Beyond the Halving
For years, the Bitcoin halving event has been the cornerstone of the four-year cycle theory. Occurring approximately every four years, it reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, historically preceding significant price surges. However, Raoul Pal posits that while the halving is a factor, the overarching influence of the global business cycle, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), is far more critical. The ISM PMI serves as a crucial leading indicator of U.S. economic activity, effectively acting as a proxy for the broader business cycle.
A PMI reading above 50 signifies economic expansion, indicating growth in manufacturing and services. Conversely, a reading below 50 points to economic contraction, signaling a slowdown. Pal emphasizes that “it’s the business cycle, stupid,” asserting that economic fundamentals, not just supply shocks, drive market trends across all assets, including cryptocurrencies. Historically, the business cycle itself has often exhibited a four-year pattern, which coincidentally aligned with Bitcoin’s halving cycle. This alignment might have inadvertently led many to attribute the cycle solely to the halving.
The Elongated Contraction and Debt Maturity
The present economic climate showcases a prolonged period of contraction, with the ISM PMI remaining below 50 for an extended duration. This represents one of the longest periods in decades without a sustained breakout above the 50-point threshold. The video highlights that the last significant expansion occurred at the market peak of 2021, and we have been navigating a challenging economic environment since then. This persistent contraction has tangible effects on the global economy, influencing investment appetite and market liquidity.
A critical factor contributing to this elongated business cycle, as Raoul Pal elaborates, stems from a significant shift in global debt management. During 2021-2022, major financial institutions effectively extended the maturity of debt from a traditional four-year period to five years. This strategic adjustment in debt refinancing has a profound ripple effect across the economy, pushing out the natural rhythm of the business cycle. Consequently, the once-reliable four-year cycle for Bitcoin is now morphing into a five-year cycle, recalibrating expectations for its next major peak.
This extension in debt maturity is not merely an obscure financial detail; it directly impacts interest rates and, by extension, economic activity. High interest rates, intended to combat inflation, have disproportionately affected “Main Street” businesses and consumers, while “Wall Street” often benefits from asset debasement. Pal argues that for the economy to regain momentum and for the ISM to move back into expansion, interest rates need to come down. This reduction is crucial for rolling over the massive amounts of global debt. The interconnectedness of these factors forms what Pal refers to as the “everything code,” a comprehensive framework for understanding global financial movements.
The precise measurement of this new cycle is reflected in a 5.4-year sine curve, which aligns directly with the exact average weighted maturity of current global debt. According to this data-driven analysis, the ISM is projected to peak around 2026, with liquidity potentially peaking earlier. This forecast pushes the expected peak of the next Bitcoin bull run squarely into Q2 2026, a significant departure from previous four-year cycle predictions.
Strategic Opportunities Amidst the Lengthened Cycle
While the extension of the Bitcoin cycle may delay immediate expectations of a massive bull run, it also presents strategic opportunities for informed investors. Historically, periods where the ISM PMI lingered below 50, indicating economic contraction, have proven to be opportune times for accumulating assets like Bitcoin and select altcoins. For instance, those who invested during the sub-50 ISM periods of 2015-16 or 2019-20 ultimately saw substantial gains during the subsequent expansions. This historical pattern suggests that current dips should be viewed as strategic buying windows, especially for projects with strong underlying fundamentals.
Beyond Bitcoin, the video also spotlights several altcoin projects that are actively building and demonstrating significant potential during this market phase. These projects often benefit from specific technological advancements or strategic partnerships, positioning them for substantial growth when the broader economic conditions improve.
Bittensor: Pioneering Decentralized AI
One such project is Bittensor (TAO), recognized as an “AI blue-chip altcoin.” Bittensor is building a decentralized machine learning network where participants contribute computational power and data, earning TAO tokens in return. The network operates through various “subnets,” each specializing in different AI tasks. The recent launch of Stillcore Capital, a new fund by prominent investor Jason Calacanis, with a focus on TAO and Bittensor subnet alpha tokens, underscores the growing institutional interest in this innovative ecosystem.
Several Bittensor subnets showcase remarkable utility and efficiency. For example, Subnet 64, known as Chutes, provides popular AI models like DeepSeek and Mistral at approximately one-sixth the cost of traditional cloud providers like AWS. Furthermore, Subnet 11, Dippy, boasts 8 million users on iOS, offering AI ‘companion apps’ that highlight the consumer-facing potential of decentralized AI. Another notable mention, Subnet 33 (Ready AI), is positioned as a Bittensor equivalent of ScaleAI—a company valued at $28 billion when acquired by Meta—and is led by experienced figures such as David Fields (formerly of Disney, Harvard) and Eytan Elbaz (co-inventor of AdSense). These examples illustrate the tangible progress and real-world applications emerging within the Bittensor network.
Sui: Powering Agentic Commerce
Sui is another promising blockchain project highlighted for its unique capabilities in the evolving landscape of “agentic commerce.” This concept refers to a future where AI agents conduct the majority of online transactions on behalf of users. Sui’s architecture is uniquely designed to facilitate this future, offering the ability to execute batches of transfers atomically and instantly, a feature not commonly found on other blockchains.
The network’s strategic positioning is further strengthened by its partnership with Google on AP2, an agentic payments framework. This collaboration aims to develop the infrastructure for AI-driven transactions, indicating significant industry recognition. Beyond payments, Sui is also focused on building protocols that simplify the buying and selling of digital content. In an era where content is often scraped without proper attribution, Sui’s commitment to upholding the rights and importance of content creators through agentic interactions positions it as a vital player in the future of the internet.
SwissBorg (BORG): A Model for Sustainable Tokenomics
SwissBorg (BORG) offers a compelling investment case through its innovative tokenomics, particularly its aggressive token buyback program. The platform utilizes a significant portion of its trading fees—a remarkable 50%—to buy back BORG tokens from the open market. This mechanism creates consistent buying pressure, which can have a substantial impact on the token’s price, especially during periods of increased trading volume.
Based on recent market activity, 50% of SwissBorg’s weekly fees translated into an impressive $400,000 of BORG buy pressure. Extrapolated, this amounts to approximately $1.6 million monthly and $20 million annually. Such substantial buybacks, even in a middling market, have the potential to significantly affect the token’s value. For context, the video suggests that $400,000 of buybacks could theoretically pump BORG by 50% in a single week, depending on current liquidity and price impact. As SwissBorg intensifies this buyback program, it sets a precedent for sustainable token value appreciation.
